There’s a disconnect between valuations and sentiment in the equity markets right now, and it’s costing Intuit investors real money.

JPMorgan cut its price target on the TurboTax and QuickBooks parent to $605 from $750 last week, according to MarketBeat. 

The bank kept its “overweight” rating intact, suggesting the investment firm remains bullish on the dividend stock.

But the lower target reflects a market gripped by fear that artificial intelligence will upend traditional software businesses.

For Intuit (INTU) shareholders, it stings. The stock has fallen more than 35% year to date and is down almost 50% from all-time highs.

That’s a steep drop for a company that just reported 17% revenue growth and raised its quarterly dividend by 15%.

So what’s actually going on here?

Intuit continues to grow at a steady clip.

Thos Robinson/Getty Images

Is Intuit a top dividend stock to own right now?

Intuit has raised its annual dividend from $1.20 per share to $4.80 per share over the past decade, per data from Fiscal.ai. 

Its annual dividend expense is forecast at $1.3 billion, while analysts estimate free cash flow at $7.37 billion in fiscal 2026 (ending in July). With a payout ratio below 20%, Intuit’s dividend is well-covered. 

Analysts forecast the annual dividend to increase to $6.4 per share in fiscal 2029, significantly enhancing the yield-at-cost. 

Key INTU stock dividend metrics

  • Quarterly dividend: $1.20 per share
  • Annual dividend: $4.80 per share
  • Dividend increase: 15% year-over-year
  • Dividend yield: Approximately 1.2%, based on recent share price levels
  • Payout ratio: Roughly 18% on a FCF basis
  • Dividend growth streak: Consistent for more than a decade

The low payout ratio is worth noting. It means Intuit is paying out a small fraction of cash flow as a dividend, giving it flexibility to keep raising payments, even if earnings growth slows.

Intuit just posted a strong quarter 

Software companies have long been valued for sticky subscriptions and reliable renewals. Now, AI threatens to automate workflows, squeeze pricing, and lower the barrier to entry for new competitors.

Despite the stock’s brutal slide, Intuit’s business results tell a different story. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company posted$4.7 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year.

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Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $4.15, up from $3.32 a year ago.

The company’s mid-market platform is gaining real traction. 

  • Online Ecosystem revenue for QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite grew approximately 40% in the quarter. 
  • New contracts for Intuit Enterprise Suite grew nearly 50% quarter over quarter.
  • On the consumer side, TurboTax revenue grew 12%, even as total IRS returns were down more than five points through Feb. 6. 

CEO Sasan Goodarzi pushed back hard on the AI disruption narrative during the company’s earnings call.

His argument: Intuit operates in a regulated, high-stakes financial environment where accuracy, compliance, and human expertise aren’t optional.

Intuit also announced a new multiyear partnership with Anthropic, the very company whose new tools rattled markets, to power personalized financial experiences.

The company said its proprietary customer data remains within its own systems.

What is next for INTU stock price?

JPMorgan’s move to $605 reflects the macro pressure on software valuations more than any fundamental problem inside Intuit’s business.

The “overweight” rating remains. The implied upside from current prices remains significant, at more than 55%.

Wall Street forecastsadjusted earnings per share to expand from $20.15 per share in fiscal 2025 to $33.21 per share in 2029. 

If INTU stock is priced at 20x forward earnings, which is below its 10-year average of 33.5x, it could rise by 60% over the next 30 months. 

Out of the 20 analysts covering INTU stock, 17 recommend “buy,” and three recommend “hold.” The average Intuit stock price target is $606, indicating an upside potential of 48% from current levels. 

Still, the AI disruption debate isn’t going away anytime soon. Until investors get more clarity on whether tools like Anthropic’s Cowork genuinely threaten software incumbents or simply complement them, stocks such as Intuit may continue to face pressure regardless of what the earnings reports show.

The numbers say one thing, but the market is saying something else right now.

Related: JPMorgan drops blunt take on software stocks AI threat