The New Zealand dollar came under pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand opted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

Although the decision had been anticipated, markets focused on the central bank’s forward guidance, which carried a distinctly dovish tone. Policymakers indicated that:
→ monetary conditions are expected to remain supportive for an extended period, while still leaving the door open to a possible rate increase in the fourth quarter;
→ inflation is gradually moving back within the target band.

In response, the NZD weakened against its major peers, with NZD/USD dropping to its lowest point in almost a fortnight.

NZD/USD Technical Outlook

Since late autumn 2025, the pair had been trending higher, forming a well-defined ascending channel. Over time, the channel’s median line transitioned from resistance into support, as illustrated by the thicker markings on the chart.

However, the pullback from the 21 January high — where price tested the channel’s upper boundary — unfolded sharply. This suggests that near the 2025 peak, sellers regained control and shifted momentum in their favour.

→ For bulls, the channel’s median line could act as a key support area.
→ For bears, a descending trend line drawn from the lower high of 12 February may serve as a barrier to further gains.

Given these factors, the pair may move into a consolidation phase over the next few weeks as the market reassesses direction.

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